March brought unstable weather to the people of Moscow and the Moscow region: literally within a few days, the heat was replaced by severe frosts and snowfall. But the first month of spring ends with a warm note. April will bring a real spring in the area of the capital, when the snow will melt and when it will be possible to change tires for the summer, meteorologists told RIAMO.
Heating in late March
On March 25, the meteorological spring started in the outskirts of the capital: the average daily air temperature exceeded the limit of zero degrees and went to the positive sector. Although it happened four days later than the climate calendar of the last 30 years predicted, everyone was very happy about the long-awaited warming.
“By the end of March, night temperatures will be around zero and during the day you can expect 5-10 ten degrees of heat with slight fluctuations,” Evgeny Tiskovets, chief meteorologist at the FIA, told RIAMO.
This is five to seven degrees warmer than forecast by climate indicators, he noted.
However, it is difficult to call this spring unusually warm. As Roman Vilfand, the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, recalls, the real “spring”, for example, was in 2017, when the temperature background was already at the level of 18-19 degrees.
“Now the temperature could be three degrees higher if it were not for the snow – there is still a lot: the height of the snow cover is about 10 cm higher than the climatic values,” said Wilfand.
Snow is a deterrent to rising temperatures, he said. Solar energy is used not to heat the soil, but to melt the snow.
Wilfand added that the temperature in the area of the capital is not uniform: it is always colder in the north than in the south. Thus, on the night of March 25, the temperature difference in various parts of the Moscow region reached 13 degrees and in the coming days this fluctuation will continue.
According to the Gismeteo portal, the coldest in the next 30 days will be the night of Sunday, March 28 – in Moscow and the Moscow region it will freeze up to 5 degrees. The lowest daily temperature – plus 3 degrees – is expected on March 28 and 30.
Last snowfall of spring
April in the capital’s area will be slightly warmer than normal and with a lack of rainfall, says Yevgeny Tishkovets. For now, all indications are that in April we will have more sunshine than expected.
“It is possible that two cold waves will come at the beginning and at the end of the month, but it will not be extreme. “The maximum negative deviation from the rule will be one to three degrees, so April will be hot and dry for us,” Tishkovets said.
According to Gismeteo forecast, the hottest days of next month will be April 20 and 21, when in Moscow it will heat up to 14 degrees above zero during the day, the night will also be warm – the thermometers will show plus 5 points.
Rainfall is expected for only six days: from March 29 to April 2 and also on April 6. It will rain or snow with rain.
The heaviest rainfall is expected on April 2 – according to preliminary forecasts, this will be the last snow of spring 2021.
Most meteorologists in April forecast partly cloudy skies, but the sun will continue to shine through the clouds. Sunny and clear days will be from April 8 to 11, April 15, 16 and 19 – the perfect time for spring walks. And cloudy and stormy is expected only on April 2 and 5.
However, as Gismeteo’s top meteorologist Leonid Starkov points out, this is just one of the possible scenarios for April weather.
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When the snow melts
Telegraphic channel “Deptrans of Moscow”
According to the preliminary data of the meteorological center “Fovos”, the snow cover will almost disappear by the beginning of April and at 10 the snow will disappear completely, except that it may remain in the forests until 15. And the rainfall deficit will be 30 -50% of the rule.
“This situation with the rains is better than if the so-called ‘friendly spring’ came in the area of the capital, when the snow is destroyed not only by the high temperatures, but also by the rains in the form of hot rains. “In this case, the snow is destroyed much faster, which is a dangerously strong flood,” says Roman Vilfand.
In April, although rainfall is forecast, it is small. Therefore, in terms of floods, the situation is expected to be calm: if the situation changes, meteorologists will warn about it two to four days in advance.
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When is it time to change tires?
Meteorologists have such a thing as a phenological spring – when the average daily air temperature is 5 degrees and above.
“It is also called a car: at this temperature, the tire on summer tires acquires the necessary properties and the tires can be changed. “According to our forecasts, the beginning of the phenological spring in the area of the capital is expected on April 7”, added Evgeniy Tishkovets.
If we are talking about the long term, then May 2021, according to preliminary forecasts, will also be slightly warmer than usual: the temperature rise will be one to two degrees, concluded the Phobos expert.
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