The outgoing February 2021 will be remembered for severe frosts and heavy snowfalls that literally paralyzed life in the Moscow region. But at the end of the month, the cold was replaced by the abnormal, almost spring heat, because March is already in the nose. Residents of Moscow and the Moscow region, tired of the cold, rejoiced at the overheating, but for how long? How long can we wait for March – the arrival of real spring or the return of winter, meteorologists told RIAMO.
The end of February in the area of the capital is forecast to be very hot, with temperatures exceeding the normal by five to six degrees. Over the past two weeks, the weather in Moscow and the Moscow region has been determined by a cold anticyclone – wind from the Arctic and sub-Urals.
As Alexander Sinenkov, a leading expert at the Phobos Meteorological Center, told RIAMO, now the north air flow is changing to west and southwest. The center of the European part of Russia has already begun to receive warm air from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Of course, this air will cool down along the way, but it will still bring very hot weather for the end of February.
“The temperature will rise to zero in almost the entire middle lane. “Rainfall in the form of sleet is expected at the moment, as well as low and medium rainfall – but there will be no significant rainfall,” Sinenkov said.
At the same time, meteorologists predict ice and icy rain. They will help to compress the snow cover: first, the upper layers of snow will melt and then freeze slightly – as a result, an ice crust forms on the surface. This should be taken into account by those drivers who have not yet cleaned their cars after a snowfall: it is worth doing in the next few days, otherwise it will be problematic to freeze the car later.
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As for the beginning of March, it seems to be cool this year.
“During the day, the temperature will range from zero to minus 5 degrees and at night the thermometers will drop to 5-10 degrees below zero,” says Alexander Sinenkov.
According to the meteorological forecasts, the inhabitants of the Moscow region in the first month of spring will experience unstable weather, which can hardly be called spring. Thus, according to the preliminary forecast of the portal Gismeteo, in March there will be room for both frost and snowfall.
Thus, the coldest will be the night of March 7, when the thermometers in Moscow and the Moscow region will fall to 12 degrees below zero. The lowest daily temperature -8 degrees below zero- is expected on March 6-7.
The hottest days of next month, according to Gismeteo forecast, will be March 18 and 21, when in Moscow during the day it will heat up to 3 degrees above zero. But on the night of March, meteorologists still do not predict positive temperatures. The hottest nights are expected on March 19 and 21, when the bars will show only minus 1 degree.
Heavy snowfall is expected on March 11, 14 and 15. There will be even a few snowfalls for another seven days in March. Snow and rain are expected for nine days and by the end of the month it will fall almost every day.
However, as Gismeteo’s top meteorologist Leonid Starkov points out, this is just one of the possible scenarios for March weather.
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When asked when the real spring will come, Alexander Sinenkov says it all depends on what exactly is considered the beginning of spring.
Thus, spring has always been associated with the arrival of the towers – the first birds of spring. They appear in the Moscow region along with thawed patches in the fields and partial melting of the snow cover: in the thawed fields, the towers look for food. They usually arrive in the Moscow region around March 14-15.
“But this year the snow level is very high and the beginning of March promises to be cool. Therefore, the date of arrival of the girls in the Moscow region is likely to shift by ten days – in the middle of the third decade of the month. “So we have to assume that this spring in the capital will be late,” says the RIAMO interlocutor.
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When the snow melts
However, the arrival of the towers is still a national landmark for the coming of spring. If we rely on scientific data, then the climatic spring in Moscow and the Moscow region, as a rule, comes on March 27. But even with this date in 2021, not everything is so simple.
According to the Phobos meteorological center, preliminary calculations show that the temperature in March 2021 will be one to four degrees below the climatic norm with a slight deficit of rainfall. This means that the arrival of spring climate will shift by one or two weeks, ie it will fall in the first ten days of April. As a result, March will not only receive a “winter” regime, but will also hand over its cold baton in early April.
As meteorologists expect, the time of destruction and melting of the snow will also be delayed – most likely this will only happen on April 15-20 and in the forests – even closer to May Day. Due to this, a difficult flood situation is expected.
However, there is good news. According to preliminary estimates by Phobos, after a cold start to spring, by the end of April, the “climate pendulum” will move in the opposite direction. After that, the spring-summer period will be quite warm and in some seasons even warm. So the inhabitants of the Moscow region this year have every opportunity for a good summer.