RIAC :: The nature of revolutionary change

It seems that in the coming years we are in a very dark period of completion of the post-Cold War international order. And you have to prepare mentally for that. The demolition of the global political and economic infrastructure that has been created for several decades will affect the fate of not only people, but entire nations, whose interests in the context of ongoing change will seem insignificant. And to get rid of the constant premonition of the beginning of the revelation, if it really comes, will be the result not of a political spirit, but of an extremely happy combination of circumstances.

Most of the discussion about how the Liberal World Order final will unfold, and this is the process we are dealing with now, has been summed up in the fact that the most likely scenario, which we can conditionally call “Chinese.” Its main meaning and intended content is the relatively peaceful transfer of a ruler from the top of the political and economic pyramid, which will occur as a result of the development of other players’ capabilities and objective historical processes that do not involve maintaining the tyrannical model. of international politics on any long-term basis. Even now, optimists believe that there is still a certain possibility of this “plan” and the tragic events in Eastern Europe will become one of the regular conflicts, “a little blood”, which many peoples will have to pay for its happiness. others to live in a renewed world.

It seems that in the coming years we are in a very dark period of completion of the post-Cold War international order. And you have to prepare mentally for that. The demolition of the global political and economic infrastructure that has been created for several decades will affect the fate of not only people, but entire nations, whose interests in the context of ongoing change will seem insignificant. And to get rid of the constant premonition of the beginning of the revelation, if it really comes, will be the result not of a political spirit, but of an extremely happy combination of circumstances.

Most of the discussion about how the Liberal World Order final will unfold, and this is the process we are dealing with now, has been summed up in the fact that the most likely scenario, which we can conditionally call “Chinese.” Its main meaning and intended content is the relatively peaceful transfer of a ruler from the top of the political and economic pyramid, which will occur as a result of the development of other players’ capabilities and objective historical processes that do not involve maintaining the tyrannical model. of international politics on any long-term basis. Even now, optimists believe that there is still a certain possibility of this “plan” and the tragic events in Eastern Europe will become one of the regular conflicts, “a little blood”, which many peoples will have to pay for its happiness. others to live in a renewed world.

However, the scenario that lives up to our most dramatic expectations seems more likely. It is based on the understanding that international politics is based on Eurocentrism with the inherently tragic nature of change. And although the great Asian cultures are already much more than just spectators in the unfolding spectacle, their real emergence is only possible in the long run. Judging by the events of the last month, the revolutionary method that characterizes Europe for resolving the accumulated contradictions prevailed.

Russia’s decisive action in response to the West’s reluctance to engage in substantive negotiations with it has destroyed the European international order as we know it and will probably never be restored. No less decisive response from the West – an almost total economic war against one of the world’s leading powers – is destroying the foundations of transnational relations on a global scale. Even though most countries in the world now continue to use the existing infrastructure, there is no doubt that they are doing so out of inactivity and due to the inability to leave it immediately. In addition, most countries in the world are small social communities with a population of no more than 50 million people, who almost never radically change their behavior on their own initiative.

However, one cannot ignore the fact that such radical changes cannot be limited to one geographical area or to selected areas of social or economic interaction. The behavior of Russia and Western countries, at least, suggests that almost everything that has arisen and surrounds our lives in the last 30-40 years can be reviewed. We can not disagree with the fact that a virtually immediate military conflict between such great powers proves to be a countless greater shock to the world than any pandemic, such as the one that has frightened everyone so much in the last two years. In other words, as an object of review, state borders are no different from the ways in which international trade is conducted, and the sovereignty of individual countries alone is no different from our ability to move freely between Russia and its current adversaries. . the issue is not in the issue under review, but in what arose in the context of a ruined international order. And when this wave of global crisis finally subsides, the new world will not look at all like the one we lived in until 2022. You can only be sure of the fate of humanity’s classic heritage – music and literature.


A source: Weekly magazine “Profile”

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