detailed weather forecast for the second decade of April

According to meteorologists, warming up to +16 degrees is expected in central Russia by the end of the week. How long it will last, what will happen next with the weather, said on the air of MIR 24 Yuri Varakin, head of the state center of Roshydromet.

– Looking out the window in the morning, it is very difficult to believe in the promise of your colleagues to warm up almost in the temperatures of May. Is it true that spring is approaching in Moscow?

Yuri Varakin: Yes, and it was visible even a week ago. Indeed, there were many surprises and questions that it was snowing outside the window and you promise that from 8 it will go short in the spring. At 95% we can say that this will happen.

It is already hot in the southwestern regions of Europe, in the Smolensk region, in the Bryansk region, in the Kaluga region, in Kursk, in the Central Black Earth regions. There they now enjoy a temperature of 10-15 degrees. The frontal zone is suitable only for the Moscow region, the Tver region, Vladimir. The center of the cyclone is somewhat northwest and the cyclone is quite strong. The hot zone is extensive, so starting on the evening of April 7, residents of central Russia, including the Moscow region and even the Tver region, will be in the hot zone. After slightly negative temperatures from 0 to minus 1 degree and sleet, which occurred in the morning, from the second half of the day tomorrow and until Tuesday-Wednesday, there will be a series of cyclones, cyclonic tornadoes. One by one, like trains, they cross the Atlantic through Scandinavia, through Northeastern Europe, through the Baltic and will push the next parts of the hot air. That is, the southwest, south wind blows towards the Central Federal District. Accordingly, the temperature will rise gradually. On Friday night, the temperature in Moscow and the surrounding areas will be higher than it was on Thursday morning. On April 8 the temperature is expected to range from 10-13 degrees. Rains will occur, in the capital we expect them at 8 and 9 and on the evening of April 10. As the temperature will be positive even at night, the snow cover will decrease.

– Yes, it has scanned the last two days …

Yuri Varakin: Yes, the first five days of April were an average of two degrees below normal. In April, every day there should be an increase in temperature, and it will be, and somewhat even steeper. As a result, the temperature will correspond almost to the second fortnight of April. For the end of the first decade – beginning of the second decade, the average daily temperature will be 2-3 degrees higher in both Moscow and Ryazan.

If we talk about where this heat will come from, then the inhabitants of the Southern Urals and the border regions with Kazakhstan will feel it more at the weekend next week. There the difference in average daily temperatures will reach from 6 to 8 degrees above the norm. For Chelyabinsk, south of the Sverdlovsk region and Yekaterinburg, on Sunday the temperature will range from 15-16 degrees. These are the Urals, where it is always colder this season than in Moscow.

– To what extent do such temperature jumps correspond to the norms of the end of the first decade of April?

Yuri Varakin: If we talk about the average monthly temperature, then the deviation will not be too big. Because the beginning of the first five days in April was slightly below the norm and now it will be vertically above the norm. In the second half of April, according to the climate, Moscow is expected to reach an average daily temperature of 10 degrees by May 1. That is, if the average daily temperature is 11-12 degrees, it will differ slightly from the average daily temperature of the last days of April. It is clear that if now, instead of 3-4 degrees, the average daily temperature is 5-6 degrees, then we will no longer feel it as 5 degrees of heat, but as 12-14 degrees.

But at the same time, such an abundance of cyclones, which will pass by train next week through Eastern Europe and enter the European territory of Russia from St. Petersburg to Moscow, will bring rainfall in almost all areas: Leningrad, Novgorod, Smolensk Oblasts. , Tver. In March, there was a lack of rainfall, we did not arrive in Moscow in March, only 40% of the monthly rule fell. But already today we have from 50% to 60% rainfall. We are still waiting for the rains to come. At least one half-year rule will fall out and by the end of the second decade, nature will significantly exceed the rainfall rule. This is good for everyone, it is good for agriculture and the most important thing for us is that in the spring there is enough moisture in the soil. Even if we assume that there will be some kind of shortage in the summer months, this humidity will then subside for agricultural producers. The second point is that the snow cover will disappear quickly. When the temperatures are positive and it rains, the snow disappears quickly.

– What are the temperatures on the other side of the Urals? Are floods expected in large rivers?

Yuri Varakin: In the southern Urals, in the upper Irtysh, in Ishim, in the territories bordering Kazakhstan, the temperature abnormality has already begun. In the southern Urals, in Bashkiria, in the Orenburg, Kurgan regions, the flood has already begun. If we continue to go to the south of Krasnoyarsk Territory, in Khakassia, to Baikal, then yes, the ice is broken, ladies and gentlemen of the jury.

The unusually high temperatures that we expect in the next 5-7 days will lead to more intense opening of the rivers and more intense melting. The ice will decrease quickly, plus the melting snow in the fields, from which all the streams will go to the rivers. So everyone has been warned.

In the northern part of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, in the Yamalo-Nenets region, in Taimyr, winter procedures will take place for the next week or ten days. There is even more than a meter of snow, negative temperatures. Although the anomalies there are high: instead of minus 15 degrees – minus 5.

They are still waiting for natural fires, if there is a human factor. In most parts of Central Russia, the hunting season begins on April 9. This means that already on weekends, an unconscious hunter can light a fire. And the snow is already gone. Everything dries very quickly to plus 10-15 degrees. In the southern Urals, south of Khakassia, in the Altai Territory, there is virtually no snow cover. There are fires, there are steppes, last year’s dry grass, which is not cut somewhere, it is burned, plus a strong wind. A week ago, in the Altai Territory, flocks of sheep died and many cottages burned.

On April 10-15, the process of melting snow will begin and where there is no temperature, it will rise. The period of fires is expected and already many governors are beginning to announce an increased danger.

In the Far East, Transbaikalia, south of Buryatia, in the regions bordering Mongolia and China, there is very little snow, there is a strong continental climate, the snow cover even at the peak of winter there is a maximum of 10 -15 cm Now it’s spring, the snow is gone, the snow cover is melting to zero, there are active floods, people are starting to go out into nature, all of them carry their own threat.

If you go farther to Primorsky Krai, all south of the North Korean border, south of Primorsky Krai, spring is already in full swing there. That is, positive temperatures, anticyclone, we do not expect particularly rainy. Plus the areas of the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Amur Region, south of the Amur Region.

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