The outgoing 2020 proved to be rich in weather surprises: last winter and the prolonged autumn became unusually warm. However, the coming December immediately made me feel that winter had come – the Muscovites had “Martian” frosts ahead. How long can the residents of the Moscow region wait for the first winter month and New Year’s Eve, meteorologists told RIAMO.
The meteorologist spoke about the weather in the Moscow region on New Year’s Eve >>
Real winter time
According to the meteorological forecasts, frosts are expected for the residents of Moscow and the Moscow region in the near future. This is due to the fact that a strong and powerful anticyclone with high pressure in the center is growing over the center of European Russia, including the capital region, and will operate for quite some time.
According to the scientific director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand, the effect of this anticyclone is strong and will collapse slowly. Therefore, in the next 7-10 days in the Moscow region there will be icy weather – meteorologists have already called it “Martian”.
The lowest temperatures are expected in the suburbs and sleeping areas of the capital.
According to Wilfand, from Sunday, December 6, the air temperature in the area of the capital will be one to two degrees below normal.
“Until now, the temperature background was four to six degrees above normal – the weather was always lagging behind in terms of climate change. “And now it’s time for a real winter, which many people missed,” says Roman Vilfand.
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Frozen top and high pressure
Residents of Moscow and the Moscow region have felt a noticeable chill since Thursday-Friday.
And next weekend, according to Phobos meteorological expert Mikhail Leus, the area will be completely under the influence of a cyclone full of cold and rather dry air.
“The weather will be partly cloudy, without rain and the frosts will intensify. At night, the thermometers will show 5-10 degrees of frost, during the day – 1-6 degrees below zero. “But then it will be colder,” says Leus.
The peak of cooling, according to his forecasts, will fall Monday-Tuesday next week, December 7 and 8: at night it will be 9-14, and during the day – 4-9 degrees below zero.
At the same time, the atmospheric pressure will be very high: on Sunday and Monday it will be 765-766 millimeters of mercury, ie 18-20 units higher than normal. Such weather will remain in the area of the capital at least until the middle of next week.
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Sun without snow
According to Roman Wilfand, no snowfall is expected in the Moscow region next week.
“It’s important that it does not rain during an anticyclone. “Therefore, the snow cover that exists today will not increase in the next six to seven days,” says Wilfand.
Today, the maximum height of snow cover in Moscow is two to four centimeters. In the region, it ranges from eight to nine centimeters in the north, in the Mozhaisk region, in one or two centimeters in the south. This is a very small amount of snow cover and it is not worth counting on its increase in the near future.
“But the snow that fell will remain and will please the eye. “In addition, as variable cloudiness is forecast during the cyclone, the sun will often show in Moscow and the region and there will be almost no wind: calm is expected,” said the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia.
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Some snow and strong frosts
Rainfall in December is generally expected to be lower than normal. If the norm of the month is 56 millimeters, then in December this year, according to Phobos calculations, they will fall 40-50 millimeters.
“Generally, there will be some snow and quite severe frosts,” Mikhail Leus said.
According to his forecasts, the average temperature of the last month of 2020 will be minus 4.5-5.5 degrees, which is still slightly warmer than normal. But compared to last December (the average monthly temperature was plus 0.8 degrees), it will be much colder, said the meteorologist.
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New Year’s Eve thawing
However, Muscovites will not have to freeze constantly out of habit. According to the Gismeteo portal, the air temperature in the Moscow region will be uneven for the next 30 days.
The coldest will be on the night of December 18, when thermometers in Moscow and the Moscow region will drop to 12 degrees below zero. The lowest daily temperature -6 degrees below zero- is expected on December 11 and 19.
But the hottest day can be December 30th – the thermometers will rise to plus 2 degrees. The night also promises to be the hottest of the month – around zero degrees.
According to preliminary forecasts, next week, from December 6 to 11, will be clear and without snow. Then for 15 days there will be rainfall, mainly in the form of snow. Rains are expected on December 22, 27, 28 and 30, which will not be a pleasant surprise for the residents of Moscow and the Moscow region on New Year’s Eve.
However, as Gismeteo’s top meteorologist Leonid Starkov points out, this picture is just one of the possible scenarios for December weather.
As Roman Vilfand recalls, there is no statistical relationship between the temperature regime of the previous season and the next.
“These connections include the atmosphere, the continents, the ice, the oceans and many other elements. “Therefore, a warm autumn does not guarantee the same winter at all”, the expert concluded.