Utilities have not had such a difficult winter for 10 years and tomorrow another 10 cm of snow will fall in Tatarstan immediately
“The climate is getting nervous. The frequency of dangerous phenomena, adverse events related to drought, etc., is increasing “, said scientists from the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Ecology of the KFU today, saying how global warming manifests itself in Kazan, Russia and in the whole world. This February is still 8-10 degrees warmer than usual, while the snow is also expected to be much higher than normal. About what dangerous phenomena began to occur for the first time on the planet and whether it is possible to draw a parallel between the frequency of Covid and the temperature outside the window – in the material “BUSINESS Online”.
“Nature has already exceeded the plan for the snow, although there are two winter months ahead – February and March. And in the coming days, 30 percent of monthly rainfall will fall.
“In a few days we will have the monthly rainfall rule”
“This year we are witnessing a kind of winter,” the head of KFU’s Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology Department told a news conference today. Yuri Pereventchev. – The snow cover is high, it is already 60 cm – that’s a lot. There are winters that are generally about 10 cm, there used to be excellent winters when the record mark was 100 cm. On average, around 37. So nature has already outgrown the snow plan, although there are two winter months ahead – February and March. And in the coming days, 30 percent of the monthly rainfall will fall. “
Snow cover is not the only difference this season. According to Perevedentsev, global warming continues. In recent decades, we have recorded heat anomalies, especially in Russia. In our country, the temperature rises by half a degree in 10 years, in the rest of the world – by 0.2 degrees. And in Tatarstan it is even hotter.
Practically all this resulted in, for example, the most sparing winter in terms of temperatures. “The weather in Kazan and Tatarstan went against the global trend: last year proved to be one of the 7 hottest in the history of meteorological observations,” said the Associate Professor of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology at KFU. Timur Aukhadeev. – January was academic, the average monthly temperature was minus 9.8 degrees with a rate of 10.2 degrees below zero. Last year there were extreme frosts in the second decade, this year there was a mild January – there were no frosts below minus 20 degrees, although on average there are 6-7 such days in January. But note that you have to pay for such comfort. The cyclones were replaced by anticyclones and 13 times a month we experienced sudden drops in pressure.
Temperatures are expected to be 1.5 degrees above normal in February in Tatarstan. Spring, as usual, will come at the crossroads of April, when the average daily temperature will pass zero and the snow cover will disappear
“Speaking of snow, it could have been worse. It was snowing constantly – since November 11 there has not been a week without any rain. On January 1 and 23, the rainfall was more than 8 mm per day – for utilities the situation was more difficult only in 2010-2011, he continued. – Usually, the snow in Tatarstan accumulates until March 7 and then begins to melt. Characteristic for the third decade of March are the temperatures that were yesterday and the day before yesterday. The height of the cover corresponds to March. “For farmers, this is an advantage – they expect a strong moisture charge in the spring.”
Rainfall tomorrow and the day after tomorrow will be significant: in a few days we will have the monthly rainfall rule. Tomorrow – 10 mm of precipitation. About 10 cm snow cover. “The roads in the courtyards are already impassable, and they will be even worse,” Pereventchev laughed sadly. By the way, he said a little about how the weather affects animals – initially, the president of the Kazan branch of the Russian Bird Conservation Association, Professor Ilgizar Rakhimov, but he fell ill with covid, so Perevedentsev himself acted as an ornithologist, enthusiastically saying that, as it turns out, it’s bad for owls to live this year: they eat mice and the snow cover is high. Magpies and crows are also not very good: they make stocks in the fall and when it’s snowing a lot, they can’t dig them up. But it is good for hazelnuts, black and woodpeckers, which hide in avalanches. “There are no bulls in Kazan this year, they have disappeared somewhere. How did you know there was no bull? “This year there was a lot of mountain ash, they could not eat it,” he said.
In February, the temperature in Tatarstan is expected to be 1.5 degrees above the norm (minus 10 degrees), the rainfall, according to the forecast of the hydrometeorological center of the Russian Federation, should be within the normal range. Spring, as usual, will come at the junction with April, when the average daily temperature will pass below zero and the snow cover will disappear. And it will end in mid-May, when the thermometer will be above plus 15 degrees.
Yuri Pereventchev: “Now they explain everything with anthropogenic means. But the pre-industrial era was very recent – 200 years ago.
“The climate is getting nervous. The frequency of dangerous phenomena is increasing “
The speakers also expressed global trends. Thus, according to Aukhadeev, depressive weather has become a tradition. The psychological term meteorologists call the lack of sunlight: the last three months of sunny days were a quarter of the norm due to the cyclonic nature of the weather. Global warming has not disappeared either. Almost all over Russia there are temperature anomalies (only Chukotka was unlucky, it’s cool there). The average daily temperature in Tatarstan today should be minus 13 degrees, but in reality it is from 4 to 5 degrees below zero.
“Now they explain everything with the man-made. But the pre-industrial era was very recent – 200 years ago. There were 280 CO particles2 per million, and now 440. But other factors must be taken into account, – said Perevedentsev, referring to the range of reasons – from solar and volcanic activity. – In the scientific world, it is constantly said that in the Arctic the thickness of the ice is decreasing, the bears are suffering, etc. And opponents have always had a trump card – because in Antarctica the ice area is only growing. But in the last three years, the ice cover has started to decrease sharply there as well! “
Global warming is not just reflected in the thermometer. The high evaporation of moisture leads to an increase in rainfall on the globe and the accumulation of energy in the atmosphere, which becomes more and more unstable. The growing season (warmer plus 10 degrees) shifts, starts earlier and ends later. The permanent frost line recedes by 10 km per year. “The climate is getting nervous. “The frequency of dangerous phenomena, adverse events related to droughts and so on is increasing,” Aukhadeev said. In addition, the speakers said that those atmospheric phenomena that had never happened before began to appear in the world. For example, a 700-kilometer-long lightning strike has been recorded in South America.
But for RT, according to the speakers, there is no danger. “In Tatarstan, the average annual temperature is plus 5-6 degrees and the world average is 15 degrees Celsius, we still have a cold country: the fact that there will be more heat is not so bad,” said Perevedentsev. According to him, the continental climate – the difference between January and July (in Kazan it is about 33 degrees) is decreasing, the continuation of the growing season is also an advantage.
“Maybe one day we will harvest two crops. “The insidious thing is that the way it rains changes – they fall in piles and it is important for farmers that the rainfall is on schedule,” Aukhadeev added.
Scientists have even tried to draw a parallel between weather factors and the incidence of coronavirus. “We are adults, we understand that many factors are superimposed. But there is a subtle device that allows you to highlight the contribution of each factor individually. But this requires good, reliable information for the same frequency. “We do not always believe what the statistics give us,” he concluded.
Do not wait until early spring. The large amount of snow prevents the rapid heating of the soil
“Well, on March 1, spring does not come! Even crack … “
The situation with the rainfall in Tatarstan has significantly improved in the winter after a dry autumn, in the spring it will be easier for farmers, said the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation in a press conference today Roman Wilfand. In February, rainfall in the European territory of Russia will be close to normal, the expert said. In the area of the capital, the temperature will drop significantly in the coming days, “very normal frosts” are expected at the weekend, but the spring weather will come to Moscow on Monday, the expert noted.
At the same time, Wilfand warned that it is not worth waiting for early spring, it does not make sense to “deceive yourself in advance”. A large amount of snow prevents the soil from warming up quickly, he explained. For example, in the capital and the Moscow region, the depth of snow cover in the region is 40% higher than normal. “So spring is expected around [привычного срока наступления] and a little later than usual. How many I work and every time I am surprised. Comes March 1st and Muscovites [негодуют]”Well, how is it, March 1st has come, well, what is it, where is spring?” There is no spring on March 1st, then, in principle! Well, at least crack, “said one conference participant at the Izvestia Information Center.
Wilfand also said that by mid-2022, new climate standards may emerge in Russia. “Earlier, we had to say that from 2022 the whole world will turn to new meteorological standards, as there is a climate shift. <...> The World Meteorological Organization has set the basic 30-year periods for calculating the rule – 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 – over the next 30 years. <…> Obviously, that [переход] “It will happen in the middle of this year at the latest,” said the expert.