GISMETEO: Dangerous weather forecasting technologies at Gismeteo – Events

On June 14-15, Gismeteo participates in the international forum “Weather. Climate. Water “. Leading meteorologist Leonid Starkov made a presentation on the latest technological capabilities for predicting dangerous weather events.

Leonid Starkov during an interview. © Gismeteo

Thunderstorms, thunderstorms, rain and hail are classified as explosive weather phenomena – they develop in a few minutes, exist for about half an hour, act locally and at the same time cause enormous damage. You do not need to look far for examples. The catastrophic storm on May 29 in Moscow has become one of the loudest phenomena of recent years.

So what is a squall? And can it be predicted?

A thunderstorm is a sudden short-term increase in wind, often up to 20–30 m / s, usually within minutes. As a rule, in the zones of the active cold fronts a strong storm is formed, where the high thermodynamic instability of the atmosphere is “heated” by the dynamic factor. As a result, the humid air in large volumes rushes upwards, cools, becomes heavy and then, having lost its buoyancy, falls rapidly, forming a murmur near the ground – a rotating air movement with a horizontal axis.

The difficulty of predicting disasters lies in their small spatial dimensions and their short existence. Most of the known computational methods for predicting squals use concise position analysis. This suggests that gusts of wind, for example, 15–20 m / s, can be observed in the territory of an area during such a period of time. But it is possible to detail the phenomenon in just a few minutes, at best – in an hour when the process has already begun and radars have recorded the appearance and development of synaptic phenomena.

This happened on May 29 in Moscow. Storm warnings for gusts of up to 17–22 m / s were issued at 12:25 Moscow time, when the data had already started to rage in the west of the region. Due to the imperfection of prediction methods, about 70% of squall predictions give false alarms. And the real screams are often lost.

Gismeteo has developed two effective methods for predicting malignancy – short-term and medium-term. The first calculates with maximum accuracy the maximum wind force in 12–36 hours, the other warns five to seven days in advance. Both methods predicted a catastrophic conflict on May 29 in Moscow with great success.

The forecast map is shown below, where the calculated values ​​of maximum gusts of wind for 15–18 hours on May 29 are presented at the nodes of a normal lattice of points. The area above 20 m / s is filled with orange-red, over 25 m / s in lilac-violet and over 30 m / s in blue. The configuration of the area of ​​strong and very strong wind naturally resembles the zone of an atmospheric front.

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Actual values ​​of gusts of wind in Moscow and the region during this period are given below. The result speaks for itself. It is important to note that the calculation is based on the original data from 00:00 GMT on 29 May. Thus, even last night, with a delivery time of 12 hours, data were received that in 15–18 hours the wind gusts can reach 33 m / s!

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The diagram shows screenshots from the Gismeteo website, where data was received on May 24 that strong winds are expected in five days (May 29). Each subsequent prediction confirmed the strong wind and determined its strength, which indicates the high reliability of the method.

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The presented technological products are of high practical importance and their complex use gives the best result. The medium-term forecast performs a signal function in advance. The short-term forecast determines the intensity of the maximum wind. All this increases the possibility of successful forecasting and early warning of the population, authorities and special structures.

About other Gismeteo products

Prediction of the spread of air pollution

Often, man-made accidents and natural explosions are accompanied by the release of various types of substances into the atmosphere. An example is the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 and the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in March 2011. Both events were accompanied by large-scale emissions of air pollutants. Knowing the function of the source and the characteristics of the release, the 3D transfer model used in Gismeteo builds the pollution propagation trajectories.

Fire hazard forecast

Risk of fire is the ability of vegetation to be ignited by natural and man-made factors (drought, lightning, deliberate arson and negligent human behavior). A complex flammability index is used to assess the risk of fire. It is calculated based on a combination of meteorological parameters, taking into account the peculiarities of the plant landscape. The index is divided into five categories depending on the degree of risk. In Gismeteo, fire risk forecasting can be presented in the form of maps, graphs and tables.

Now transmission of synagogue phenomena

Nowcasting is a detailed, extremely short-term forecast for the next hours and minutes. The task of the broadcast now is to obtain the most accurate data on the onset, duration and intensity of events. In this case, the objects of the show are now weather phenomena associated with violent transportation – thunderstorms, hail, thunderstorms and thunderstorms. Observations from meteorological radar, geostatic satellites and AMS are used as initial forecast data. To replenish the radar field in unlit areas, an imitation of radar reflectance from a mid-range model is used. The future position of the phenomenon conduction zones is calculated by extrapolation and wind fields from prediction models. New data is uploaded every 10 minutes. Thus, the calculated fields contain the most reliable information about the explosive and transient synaptic processes. A small prediction time step (10 minutes) allows the position of the synagogue cells to be as detailed as possible. A light version of the current synagogue broadcast is public and is available in the Radar section of the Gismeteo website. Thus, any user has the most complete and reliable information about the place and time of an awesome item.

Forecast of dangerous weather phenomena on the roads

The forecast of dangerous weather phenomena on the roads is our new useful product. Technological possibilities make it possible to predict with great success such complex phenomena on the road as dew, mud, black ice and ice. Many complex processes are involved in the analysis, including heat fluxes and water phase transitions. The basic parameter is the road temperature. The forecast is made for different types of surfaces: asphalt, concrete, gravel and sand. The calculation is based on the nodes of a normal point grid with high spatial and temporal resolution. A lighter version of the weather on the streets is presented on the Gismeteo website.

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