The weather of May this year surprised the residents of the Volgograd region. Residents say they do not remember such a cold May. Maybe global warming is over and global warming is coming? Then why did the unexpected heat suddenly come?
Volgograd climatologist Anatoly Sudakov spoke about what is happening with the weather and the surprises he is preparing for next summer.
Extreme May and absolute record
– To be honest, I did not expect such an extreme May. Usually, when making long-term forecasts, scientists are guided by indicators of the long-term dynamics of the weather. And it is very difficult to predict strong deviations from its average monthly parameters. And so we have to talk about them afterwards, – said Anatoly Sudakov.
According to the climatologist, in May 2022 the temperature record in 1945, when the average monthly temperature in Stalingrad was 12.9 ° C. To date, 12.8 ° C. The deviation from the average long-term indicators, taken as a rule, was -3.5 ° С.
– This is a very large amount. Unsurprisingly, for the vast majority of Volgograd residents this is the coldest May of their lives. In addition, on May 3, the absolute record of the lowest temperature of the month for the entire period of meteorological observations in our city was updated. The thermometer showed -3.3 ° C! In addition, the record was updated not by a few tenths, but immediately by 2.2 ° C!
The Brickner cycle and the weather changes
The Volgograd expert points out several reasons why the weather has deteriorated in recent years.
– There are several reasons. And they reinforce each other. But regardless of that, in the region of the Lower Volga, due to the peculiarities of its geographical location, the weather is always very different. However, during the Brickner intra-cosmic climate cycle, characteristic of Europe, which lasts 80-90 years, two phases are observed. The second, completed in the middle of the last decade, is characterized by the predominant movement of gas masses in the geographical direction, which in some areas is blocked for long periods by extensive anticyclones. In winter, they cause long-term frost and long-term hot weather in summer, such as January 2008 and June-August 2010.
Now, according to Sudakov, the beginning of the first phase of the next Brikner cycle is the so-called meridional season, which is characterized by the transfer of air masses in a direction close to the meridian course, ie from north to south and from south northwards.
“As a result, the situation is becoming much more dynamic. Frontal-type weather prevails with much greater rainfall, alternating occurrence of Atlantic cyclones of polar and tropical latitudes in the region of the Lower Volga. The oscillation of the weather oscillates is facilitated by the ongoing global anthropogenic overheating, which is more intense inside the continents.
For example, the expert notes, in the Volgograd region in the first two decades of this century, the average annual temperature increased by 1 ° C, while on the planet as a whole by 0.6 ° C. In the subarctic zone, the rise in temperature is even more noticeable – up to 5 ° C in the last 100 years.
“But there is an additional heating mechanism associated with a significant change in the temperature of the surface beneath the troposphere as a result of the degradation of the perennial ice of the ocean, which acted as a cold accumulator in a heat bag,” says the climatologist. .
Torrential rains and stormy winds
Anatoly Sudakov is convinced that the repetition of the unprecedented hot summer of 2010 this season in the Volgograd region is impossible.
– During the meridian period, which, I repeat, began in the middle of the last decade, such giant and long-lived anticyclones as we observed in 2010 could not form over the Eastern European Plain. And much smaller anticyclones, which are heat centers in the summer, will also not be a typical weather phenomenon, the expert concludes. – I expect the continuation of the noon circulation of gas masses characteristic of recent years and dynamic frontal weather. Of the dangerous weather phenomena, heavy rains with strong storms and stormy winds are more probable.
There are no conditions for droughts, dry winds and dust storms of local origin known to us. The temperature background of next summer, the expert adds, will be determined by the prevalence of either southern or northern meridian traffic. This is how the weather map will fall.
– By the way, I must say that the regional effect of global warming in the Lower Volga region is currently offset by a reduction in summer temperature of 1-2 ° C, characteristic of the noon phase of the Brickner cycle. Thus, for the next thirty years, quite comfortable weather conditions will remain in the region of the Lower Volga, ideal for rainy agriculture (without artificial irrigation – Editor’s note), mainly wheat production “, concludes Anatoly Sudakov.
Global warming and torn winter
Anatoly Sudakov claims that it is too early to talk about the end of global warming. However, taking into account the seasonal characteristics of the next thirty years, the expert clarifies, for the inhabitants of the Volgograd region it will not be as obvious as, for example, in the early 2000s and 10s, which were characterized by extreme summer heat.
– Global warming continues in the Lower Volga region. But now it is manifested in the increase of the average temperatures of the months of the autumn-winter period. For the last three years there has been practically no phenological winter in Volgograd. And the snow cover, which formed periodically for a very short time in the second half of last winter, was solely due to external factors for our region – the removal of wet Atlantic air masses from the northern seas of Europe. But such periods quickly ended with winter tropical air invasions from the Mediterranean and the Transcaucasia.
Sudakov generally describes last winter in Volgograd as the Black Sea.
– Such weather is typical in winter for the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea. It is very unstable, wet, uncomfortable and unhealthy. Metaphorically, it can be called torn, – summarizes the climatologist.
Collage: IA “Vysota 102”