Intrigue is possible in August. The good news is that summer, unlike the whimsical and late spring, will come within schedule and within the norm. But there is a nuance: the weather in St. Petersburg has changed this context. Your 2021 return will not work.
The St. Petersburg Hydrometeorological Center has decided our weather prospects for the coming months. The main thing: the repetition of an unusually hot summer, like last year, should not happen. We have cooler and rainier weather than 2021, when the lawns shrank en masse from the heat and we had to buy new ones.
“In June, the temperature in St. Petersburg will be close to normal,” Alexander Kolesov, the city’s chief meteorologist, told Fontanka. – But there is a nuance: our norms have changed a bit. Now in June the temperature rule in our city is plus 16 degrees, in July it is plus 19 degrees and 17 degrees in August. In terms of rainfall, the June rule is 69 mm, in July – 83 mm and in August – 86. This increase is associated with heavy rainfall. For example, the weather is dry and then came the atmospheric front and the heavy rain “fulfilled” half of the rule immediately “.
June in St. Petersburg will be drier than average: 60 to 100% of rainfall is expected. In the Leningrad region, due to the same heavy rainfall, there may be more, up to 110–150%, to the delight of gardeners. According to Alexander Kolesov, June 1 will be very hot and sunny, with peace of mind waiting for up to 20-22 degrees Celsius. But then the cyclones will come to us. If the beginning of the month is warm enough, up to 20 degrees, then on June 3-4 the temperature will start to drop slightly, but not below 15-17 degrees Celsius. Then again rise to 17-22 degrees and drier weather, some days up to 24 degrees. After mid-June, the temperature will drop again, we must prepare for a slight cooling.
Against the background of these temperature slides, the question remains whether the water will heat up. Cyclones and rains seem to say: do not hope. But the night temperatures will already be high enough for our area, 7-12 degrees. Thus, according to Alexander Kolesov, St. Petersburg has a good chance of opening the swimming season in mid-June. Unless of course the water temperature of 16-17 degrees does not scare. If you plan to go to the water, then it is better not to delay it until the end of June: after a pleasant temperature of 19-24 degrees, by the end of the month the temperature will drop again to 17-22.
“July will normally be warmer, but according to our forecasts, cyclones will follow in our area,” says Alexander Kolesov. – So, we expect a lot of short-term rains, thunderstorms, thunderstorms. But the gardens will be watered more easily than last year. Cyclonicity should reduce the ambient air temperature. However, we expect 20-25 degrees of heat. “Some days can be cooler or, on the contrary, warmer, up to 30 degrees Celsius.”
The short nights of July are expected to be warm, without frost – to the delight of mushroom pickers. “I would not say that July will be bad, but compared to last summer, the weather is expected to be cooler and wetter, with frequent clouds,” says the chief meteorologist of St. Petersburg. “The sun will rise, but sunny days are impossible to predict.”
But it is too early to talk about August in such detail. Preliminary in terms of temperature and rainfall will be close to normal, a more specific forecast will be closer to mid-summer.
Generally, a slight rainfall deficit is expected this summer in the northwestern region.
“Current data show that, on average, summer in the northwest of our country – and especially in St. Petersburg – will be warmer than usual, with a small rainfall deficit,” said Michael, FOBOS weather expert. center, gave his own version to Fontanka. Leus. “The first month will be close to normal in terms of temperature and rainfall. July will be 1.5-2 degrees warmer than expected and the rainfall deficit will be 10-15% of normal. “August will prove to be less than 1 degree warmer than normal and with about the same rainfall deficit of 10-15% as in July”.
The data of the FOBOS center coincides with the expectations of the Hydrometeorological Center of St. Petersburg: in the first two weeks of June, the weather will be unstable, the temperature background will either rise to 20-23 degrees or fall to 14-17 degrees . There is a high probability of rain in the first half of the month. And only after June 15-18 the weather will “calm down”, it will become more summery, with higher temperatures and less rainfall.
Professional meteorologists see no connection between the late and cold views of spring and hot summers. At the same time, Mikhail Leus points out that the earlier we discuss any time period in terms of weather, the less accurate the predictions will be and the more they will look like a joke about the average temperature in a hospital. So in view of summer, the best strategy is to build your long-term plans regardless of the weather, but to closely monitor the forecasts for the next 3-4 days.