Weather for three months
The weather forecast for summer is still possible. That is, scientists believe that the temperature in a particular area will be above or below normal with a probability of more than 60%. At the same time, if we are talking about ratings such as “below the rule” or “above the rule”, then it is essential that the probability of an anomaly of the opposite point does not exceed 15%. Another 25% of the probabilistic prediction is attributed to the rule.
– You should read not only the forecasts, but also what is written in front of them: that forecasts for long periods are justified much worse than short-term and medium-term forecasts, that these forecasts should be treated as a kind of guideline, that they are constantly corrected and this is completely natural, – explains meteorologist Roman Vilfan. – Because the more you predict, the greater the chaotic component. Therefore, I emphasize: this is a probabilistic prediction, the degree of confidence in it is
Roman Vilfand is a Russian meteorologist, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, a member of the board of Roshydromet and the scientific and technical board of Roshydromet.
According to the probable forecast, the summer in Russia will be, as Wilfand says, “not cold” – the temperature is expected to be close to and above the norm. June in Russia will be quite normal. The average monthly temperature below the norm is not expected anywhere, and above – only in the east of northwest, in the north of Siberia, in most of the federal regions of the Urals and in the west of Yakutia. Over-normal rainfall is expected only in the south of the Khabarovsk Territory, but the western regions of the northwestern and southern regions of the Southern Federal District, the North Caucasus Federal District, Taimyr, Kamchatka and partly Yakutia will face snowfall.
In July, above-average temperatures are expected in the northern Urals and the northern half of the Siberian Federal District, as well as in western Yakutia. Meteorologists again do not promise any extra cold and heavy rainfall is expected only in Primorsky Krai. Less than normal rainfall is expected in the south and west of the Central Federal District, in the Federal Regions of the South and North Caucasus, in the Altai, in the northeast of Yakutia and in Tsukotka.
“In general, this summer, the temperature in Siberia and the Far East is likely to be above the norm, higher than in Europe,” said Wilfand.
In August, the weather is warmer than usual, as forecast in the west of the Central and Southern Federal District, in the southeast of the Siberian Federal District, in Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory. Rainfall is expected in the west of the Central Federal District and in the Taimyr, but in the southeastern Urals and southwest of the Siberian Federal District, in the southern parts of the Far East and in Kamchatka, it will be more than normal.
Temperature fluctuations and other anomalies
The absence of even one area in the forecast, which would predict temperatures below normal, creates the impression that the summer in Russia will be hot or even hot. You can tell, but there is one detail: the weather will change constantly. In a long-term forecast, meteorologists predict the average temperature for the month, but can not say exactly how it will be distributed within the month.
– Summer is not expected to be uniform. For example, May in central Russia was quite homogeneous: cold weather, low pressure determined the transfer of air masses from the north. In the summer months the weather will be less stable. “There will be an alternation of very hot periods and cool, rainy ones,” says Roman Vilfand. – But in general, the average temperature will be close to and above normal.
In frequent weather changes they are inclined more and more. Climatologist Andrey Kiselev says that in relation to the end of last century, that is
“On average, for the entire period of the 21st century, according to Roshydromet, 371 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena occur in our country every year, ie about one every day,” says Andrey Kiselev. – This is if we are talking only about those phenomena that have caused serious damage to the economy or to people. But it can not be said that each year is necessarily more than the previous, this is not the case.
Andrey Kiselev, Candidate of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, Main Geophysical Observatory
Roman Vifand agrees with the climatologist:
“You could say the climate is so calm, gentle gentleman. It can be associated with a slow steady rise in temperature. And the weather is a weird girl who will either do this or that. The climate is constantly warming and the consequence of this is the increase of weather variability. The outstanding academic Umakhov formulated the following formula: during the period of climate warming, the weather is nervous. It is estimated that in recent decades, the number of dangerous events worldwide has increased fivefold.
In addition to the vagaries of the weather, hydrometeorological phenomena include, for example, high water. In total, 1205 such phenomena were counted last year. If we talk only about dangerous meteorological, ie weather phenomena, then it was 612. These include strong frost and heat, heavy rainfall, snowstorm, strong wind, tornado, hail. , frost, and so on Further.
According to the climatologist, most of the dangerous meteorological phenomena occurred last summer. According to the Roshydromet report, 85 dangerous phenomena occurred in Russia in June, 90 in July and 87 in August. By comparison, there were only 49 in January. Kiselev says this is not an accident: there are always more anomalies in the summer.
– According to statistics, the largest number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena occurs in summer. This does not mean that the other seasons are white and fluffy at all, but the maximum is summer, says the climatologist. – When the temperature rises (and summer is, of course, higher), all processes occur more intensively. We know from physics that the energy of a body or system increases with increasing temperature. When we have excess energy, it requires a way out. One way out is to increase such phenomena.