The stagnant spring was not even going to please with real and sustainable warmth. In addition, the penultimate week of May brought a cold, bordering on frost, writes “MR-info”.
On the outskirts of Magnitogorsk there was an atmospheric cyclone, which brought rain in the form of rain, snow and hail. Snow fell on the night of May 20-21, for example, as part of the Stroitel-1 gardening partnership. Residents of the villages Askarovo and Karagaysky shared photos of snowy yards on social networks, snow fell in the area of в Ban. В.. Lake Bannoe and in Beloretsk. Sunday, May 22 was marked by hail.
The unusually cold weather remained for several weeks and the reason for this is the so-called blocking process. An inactive anticyclone was installed over Siberia, so that the cyclones of the Atlantic moving from the west crashed in this center and hovered over the east of the Russian Plain and the Urals. Because of this, the areas remained mainly in the cold back of stormy tornadoes. One after another, sections of Arctic air made their way here. And every time it got colder, – said the meteorologists of the meteorological center FOBOS. And the earth, instead of warming up after the winter, began to cool intensely.
As a result, this May became a record. With the average monthly temperature in May in Magnitogorsk being 13.0 degrees, the actual temperature of the month, according to observations, was only 8.7 degrees. The deviation from the rule reached minus 3.3 degrees. May is the second coldest month of this century. It was colder only in 2000. Then the thermometers fell below normal by four degrees. But in terms of rainfall in our city, May 2022 broke a record. It became the rainiest in this century. The rain fell two and a half times more than normal. This is despite the fact that last May was the warmest for the whole season of meteorological observations and very dry.
When the inhabitants of Magnitogorsk were already completely frozen and wet, meteorologists reported that the peak of the Arctic invasion was over and a heating trend had begun. According to the PHOBOS Center, in late May, another cyclone, heading east of European Russia, diverted airflows over the Urals to the south and warmer gas masses began to enter the region. This heat influx is accompanied by rather cloudy weather with occasional rain.
The weather is now more and more prone to frequent changes, this has been noticed, probably, even by the most careless. Climatologist, Candidate of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, employee of the Main Geophysical Observatory Voeikov, author of the book “Climate Paradoxes” Andrey Kiselev says that compared to the end of the last century, the number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena, approximately doubled.
– On average, for the entire period of the 21st century, in our country, according to Roshydromet, there are 371 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena per year, ie about one every day, said the climatologist. – This is if we are talking only about those phenomena that have caused serious damage to the economy or to people. But it can not be said that each year is necessarily more than the previous, this is not the case.
It is like the average temperature in the chamber, when the temperature is formed in Siberia, where it was 30 degrees in May, and the temperature in the Urals and Central Russia, where it was unusually cold. On average, in Russia, May turns out to be “normal”.
And what awaits us next summer? While meteorologists are optimistic, summer will be hot. The absence of even one area in the forecast, which would predict temperatures below normal, creates the impression that the summer in Russia will be good. But it is not so. Making such a long-term forecast, meteorologists predict the average temperature of the month, but can not say exactly how it will be distributed within the month. The weather can be about the same throughout the month or it can change regularly from cold to hot and back, and as a result, the average monthly temperature will be the same.
Evgeny Tishkovets, a leading specialist at the Phobos Meteorological Center, believes that this year we should not expect unbelievable heat, heat or drought. This is, in fact, good. We do not need extreme weather conditions. According to his forecasts, the temperature will be moderate, the summer will be moderately warm, with rainfall corresponding to long-term standards. And this applies not only to the European territory of Russia, but also to the Asian part of our country, he added. In places, the temperature will exceed the norm, but only slightly – somewhere by half a degree, somewhere by a degree. In July and August, the air temperature will slightly exceed normal. At the same time, the Fear Center promises a rainy June for the Urals. According to the meteorological service, the rainfall will be 20-30 percent more than usual.
– In June, the average monthly temperature will be above normal in the east of the Northwestern Federal District, in most of the Urals, as well as in northern Siberia, predicts Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Department. . It will be colder in July in western Siberia and in the center of the country. In August, it will be colder than usual in the east of Central Russia and in the south of the Urals.
And yet, reliable predictions for a hot or cold summer should not be trusted, such predictions can only be probable, he added.
But not all meteorologists are optimistic. And if for June-July 2022 their forecasts generally coincide with those announced by the Hydrometeorological Center and Fovos, then there are quite significant differences in the weather in August. Some experts predict a very whimsical end to summer with abrupt changes in temperature background, heavy cavities, showers and thunderstorms.
And for those who are monitoring their health, we inform you: according to the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of IKI and ISTP, on June 11, 13, 16 and 18 a magnetosphere disturbance is expected.
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